Is an industry downturn a good time to start training? (Video Presentation)

[ExpressJet Bob]

I've always said that a downturn is a great time to start training... that way you'll be ready when the airlines start hiring back.

Well, here's a video from one of the leading airline experts in the industry stating some similar things.

His name is Kit Darby and he's been following the hiring trends of the airline industry for 30 years.

I recommend this video as a way to get a snapshot of the industry as whole. It answers a lot of questions... but it may create a lot of questions from you. I'd be happy to respond to those.

It's about a 30 minute video but definately worth your time. Many people have had to pay a fee to attend one of his conferences to get this same info. ATP has brought it to you for free.

Kit Darby Airline Industry Video

What are your thoughts?

Bob

[TobyH-WY-209]

After reading through the ATP website and watching the video segment with Kit Darby, I feel encouraged- I am an economics major at the University of Wyoming and I know that the economy does in fact operate in cycles, as he said. Acquiring the training needed for this profession while the economy has slumped would seem inadvisable, but it does make sense.

[MarkR_AZ]

Very interesting and informative.

[MarcusL-NC-110]

Hey again-

I saw that video and I thought it was jamed packed with charts, some of it was a couple of years old. He was talking fast and it was edited to be fast. However I am confident that there will always be a need for pilots. I did not catch if this is an downturn cycle or an upturn. I went to the FAA website, and looked up the NexGen plans for the next 10 years. This has been planed for over twenty years, and now it is finally comming true. If you increase capacity, there will be an increase in traffic. That means more aircraft, more pilots. This should make flying more economical. Moreover, with the development of newer types of smaller/personal aircraft, there should be more opportunities. How about the HondaJet?

Thanks

[ExpressJet Bob]

Hey there Marcus,

Yes, that video does have a lot of boring charts... but it's not all smoke and mirrors. There is some great information and forecasts that appear to be coming to fruition. Of course... any forecasting is not an exact science by any means.

At this time, I'd say we are starting the upturn of the cycle. The economy is improving and many regionals are bringing back furloughees and starting the hiring cycle again. So, it be wise to have your ratings and the requisite flight experience under your belt within the next year or two to take advantage of the upswing.

The VLJ market (HondaJet, D-Jet, Mustang, Eclipse, etc) seems to be one of the biggest changes to the aviation landsape in many years. There will be many opportunies to become a active member of that market. There are many VLJ concepts that are either currently in production, or soon will be within the next year to two years.

Once that occurs, then there will be additional jobs available in the areas of air taxi pilots, personal pilots for families, and flight instructors for those individuals who purchase their own VLJ.

Just as you are currently discussing... there are so many more aviation opportunities than just becoming an airline pilot.

The future will definately be interesting... I'm looking forward to it.

Bob